Sid Salter - Election Night Blog

Keeping score in the House races? Part III

2007-11-06T23:57:00.000-06:00

Here is a summary of the latest, unofficial results of the State House elections in Mississippi:

The Democrats have won 69 seats to the GOP's 46. The Dems are leading in 5 races while the Republicans lead in 1 race. So far, the trend is 74 Democrats and 47 Republicans. The present split in the House is 75 Dems to 47 in the GOP.

Keeping score in the Senate races? Part III

2007-11-06T23:54:00.000-06:00

Here is a summary of the latest, unofficial results of the State Senate elections in Mississippi:

The Democrats again control the state Senate. The Democrats have won 28 seats to the GOP's 24. The former split in the Senate was 25 Dems to 27 in the GOP.

The voters believe they knew who Barbour served — them.

2007-11-06T23:41:00.000-06:00

For all of the pious attacks on Haley Barbour by billboard trial lawyer John Arthur Eaves — who ran a far better campaign than I had believed he would — the most frequent one was the taunting question: "Who do you serve?"
The voters gave Eaves a resounding answer tonight - they obviously believed that Haley served them and served them well as governor.

Bryant: Plans to call for a 90-day session in 2008

2007-11-06T23:35:00.000-06:00

Out of the gate, Lt. Gov.-Elect Phil Bryant plans to shake things up by asking the Legislature to shorten the normal 125-day term for the first session of a new term to 90 days, a move that he says will save over $800,000.
Democrats are certain to oppose that move, but it will set the tone for an interesting session.
I look for Bryant to be his own man as lieutenant governor. I also look for a few longtime powerbrokers in the Senate to be serving on different committees. Bryant agrees with Barbour on a lot of issues, but he has some issues of his own and I think he'll surprise some folks who believe he will be Haley's wind-up toy.

Tweedledum, Tweedledee and the Trailer....

2007-11-06T23:27:00.000-06:00

In helping Southern District Public Service Commissioner Wayne Brown retain his seat and in helping Rudy Warnock push Central Distict Transportation Commissioner Dick Hall to the limit in his apparently successful re-election bid, a big winner tonight is Mississippi Department of Transportation Executive Director Butch Brown.
Brown maintains Wayne Brown and Northern District Commissioner Bill Minor to serve as his faithful Tweedledum and Tweedledee and that leaves Hall in the same trailer in Pearl while those of us in the Central District continue to get less that full representation.
But at least we don't have to put up with "Rudy, Rudy"... who had trouble sorting out the truth in the final weeks of the campaign.

Ag Comm race: The Musgrove doctrine for Spell?

2007-11-06T21:47:00.000-06:00

Regardless the outcome, Agriculture Commissioner Lester Spell trailed all Republican statewide candidate in the general election and his race is going down to the wire against two candidate who had no money, no financial backing from their parties and no political "coattails" to ride.
Spell will either be re-elected by a razor-thin majority or his race will be decided by the House. In 1999, the Democrat-controlled House elected Democrat Ronnie Musgrove governor because they said the man with the most votes should win when no candidate gets a majority.
Will the Democrat-controlled House maintain that same posture if Republican Spell gets the most votes in a plurality victory? If they don't, they will have some explaining to do.
It's no secret I didn't vote for Lester Spell and wouldn't have whether he ran as a Democrat or a Republican. He hasn't been a good manager of the agency. A failed goat plant, a failed beef plant, agency funds lost in the goat plant failure and state funds lost in the beef plant failure. Plus, he wasn't man enough to acccept responsibility for his role in the beef plant's failure.
The fact that he tried to blame it on Mississippi State University was particularly galling to me and should be to MSU alumni everywhere.
But if Spell leads the plurality tonight without winning the majority of the vote, he should be declared the winner by the House. If the House doesn't abide by the policy they invoked in 1999, they will be hypocrites of the higher order. If the man who gets the most votes win was a good policy for Democrat Musgrove, if should be a good policy for Republican Spell in 2007.

Bryant still slightly outpolling Barbour statewide

2007-11-06T21:33:00.000-06:00

With 44 percent of the precincts reporting statewide, Gov. Haley Barbour got 151,325 votes or 58 percent to Lt. Gov.-elect Phil Bryant's 152,172 or 59 percent.

PSC: Lynn Posey opens a big lead on Charles Barbour...

2007-11-06T21:31:00.000-06:00

Democratic State Sen. has a 58 percent to 38 percent lead over Republican Charles Barbour - Gov. Haley Barbour's nephew - in the Central District Public Service Commission race. That's with 33 percent of the precincts reporting.

RECAP: Barbour, Bryant, Hosemann, Hood, Reeves are

2007-11-06T21:19:00.000-06:00

The voters have handed victories to Republicans Haley Barbour, Phil Bryant, Delbert Hosemann, Mike Chaney, and Tate Reeves and to Democrat Jim Hood so far this evening.

The only real drama left is whether Republican Stacey Pickering can open up a more comfortable lead on hard-working Democrat Mike Sumrall in the state auditor's race and whether Republican Agriculture Commissioner Lester Spell can avoid having his race decided by the House of Representatives.

Ag Comm race: Lester loses ground...

2007-11-06T21:18:00.001-06:00

601 of 1,899 precincts - 32 percent

Lester Spell, GOP (i) 79,448 - 49 percent
Rickey Cole, Dem 70,758 - 44 percent
Paul Riley, CST 12,094 - 7 percent

RNC Chairman Mike Duncan congratulates Barbour...

2007-11-06T21:15:00.000-06:00

RNC Chairman Robert M. “Mike” Duncan just released the following statement on the Mississippi elections:

“Today, voters in Mississippi resoundingly showed their support for Governor Haley Barbour and the Republican message of lower taxes, limited government, and individual responsibility. Governor Barbour's tremendous leadership in growing the Republican Party in Mississippi is to be commended. Just like their neighbors next door in Louisiana, voters in the Magnolia State rewarded success and a principled vision for the future. I am excited about what the Mississippi and Louisiana Republican victories portend for our Party. It's evident that our conservative message is resonating with voters, and the Democrats’ negative attacks and failure to present an optimistic vision for our nation are being rejected.”

Ag Comm race: Spell to 51 percent...

2007-11-06T21:12:00.000-06:00

Agriculture Commissioner - General
555 of 1899 Precincts Reporting - 29%

Spell, Lester (i) GOP 74,488 51%
Cole, Rickey Dem 61,195 42%
Riley, Paul CST 10,128 7%

Ag Comm race: Lester gains ground...

2007-11-06T21:11:00.001-06:00

Agriculture Commissioner - General
475 of 1899 Precincts Reporting - 25%

Spell, Lester (i) GOP 58,750 50%
Cole, Rickey Dem 50,652 43%
Riley, Paul CST 7,798 7%

AP declares Jim Hood, Delbert Hosemann winners...

2007-11-06T21:07:00.000-06:00

Incumbent Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood and Republican Secretary of State nominee Delbert Hosemann have been declared winners by the AP.

Keeping score in the House races? Part II

2007-11-06T21:05:00.000-06:00

Here is a summary of the latest, unofficial results of the State House elections in Mississippi:

The Democrats have won 44 seats to the GOP's 28. The Dems are leading in 18 races while the Republicans lead in 6 races. So far, the trend is 62 Democrats and 34 Republicans. The present split in the House is 75 Dems to 47 in the GOP.

Keeping score in the Senate races? Part II

2007-11-06T21:04:00.000-06:00

Here is a summary of the latest, unofficial results of the State Senate elections in Mississippi:

The Democrats have won 15 seats to the GOP's 11. The Dems are leading in 9 races while the Republicans lead in 10 races. So far, the trend is 24 Democrats and 21 Republicans. The present split in the Senate is 25 Dems to 27 in the GOP.

Ag Comm race: Will the House decide it?

2007-11-06T21:00:00.000-06:00

Agriculture Commissioner - General
384 of 1899 Precincts Reporting - 20%

Spell, Lester (i) GOP 43,906 47%
Cole, Rickey Dem 40,099 43%
Riley, Paul CST 8,641 9%

Jim Hood is cruising...

2007-11-06T20:55:00.000-06:00

Attorney General Jim Hood is cruising to a solid re-election win tonight.
Unfortunately, he will have to get to bed early tonight to make a court appearance in Hattiesburg tommorow where he's a defendant in a lawsuit filed by State Farm insurance.

Wayne Brown, Rudy Warnock get early leads

2007-11-06T20:53:00.000-06:00

Transportation Comm - Central District - General
70 of 584 Precincts Reporting - 12%

Warnock, Rudolph Dem 9,895 63%
Hall, Dick (i) GOP 5,831 37%

Transportation Comm - Southern District - General
105 of 685 Precincts Reporting - 15%

Brown, Wayne (i) Dem 13,656 57%
Benefield, Larry GOP 10,351 43%

Ag Comm. race...what's that smell?

2007-11-06T20:50:00.000-06:00

Agriculture Commissioner - General
295 of 1899 Precincts Reporting - 16%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Spell, Lester (i) GOP 30,163 46%
Cole, Rickey Dem 28,798 44%
Riley, Paul CST 7,076 11%

Bryant should be declared the winner by now.

2007-11-06T20:45:00.000-06:00

Republican Phil Bryant had a higher vote total and vote percentage than Haley Barbour when the AP called the race for Barbour with the names number of precincts reporting.

It's over. Bryant should be declared the winner within minutes...

MOOOOOOO: Look at the Ag Commissioner's race

2007-11-06T20:41:00.000-06:00

Lester, meet Les Riley...
Rickey, thank Les Riley...

Agriculture Commissioner
144 of 1,899 precincts - 8 percent
Lester Spell, GOP (i) 14,825 - 47 percent
Rickey Cole, Dem 11,447 - 37 percent
Paul Riley, CST 5,086 - 16 percent

Barbour declared the winner by the AP.

2007-11-06T20:39:00.000-06:00

Gov. Haley Barbour has been re-elected. The AP called the race at 8:35 p.m.

Keeping score in Senate races?

2007-11-06T20:37:00.000-06:00

Here is a summary of the latest, unofficial results of the State Senate elections in Mississippi:

The Democrats have won 15 seats to the GOP's 11. The Dems are leading in five races while the Republicans lead in three races. So far, the trend is 20 Democrats and 14 Republicans. The present split in the Senate is 25 Dems to 27 in the GOP.

Keeping score in House races?

2007-11-06T20:31:00.000-06:00

Here is a summary of the latest, unofficial results of the State House elections in Mississippi:

The Democrats have won 44 seats to the GOP's 28. The Dems are leading in five races while the Republicans lead in two races. So far, the trend is 49 Democrats and 30 Republicans. The present split in the House is 75 Dems to 47 in the GOP.

PSC numbers - Presley leading, Charles Barbour under 50 percent

2007-11-06T20:30:00.001-06:00

Public Service Comm Central District
7 of 584 precincts - 1 percent
Charles Barbour, GOP 1,011 - 48 percent
Lynn Posey, Dem 896 - 43 percent
Lee Dilworth, RP 189 - 9 percent

Public Service Comm Southern District
48 of 685 precincts - 7 percent
Leonard Bentz, GOP (i) 5,711 - 55 percent
Mike Collier, Dem 4,764 - 45 percent

Public Service Comm Northern District
39 of 630 precincts - 6 percent
Brandon Presley, Dem 3,177 - 52 percent
Mabel Murphree, GOP 2,939 - 48 percent

Republican National Committee source cites "heavy" RNC hand in state races...

2007-11-06T20:25:00.000-06:00

Turnout, as cited in an earlier blog post tonight, is no longer a matter left to chance.

The RNC has been heavily involved in the Mississippi elections since day one, an RNC official said tonight.

Specifically, the RNC invested hundreds of thousands of dollars in the Mississippi election, including direct financial support for the MS GOP’s get-out-the-vote efforts, volunteer recruitment, voter registration and targeting, and technical assistance for phone banking and door-to-door efforts.

Clearly, state Democrats were better organized in 2007 than in prior elections and spent a substantial sum here as well. But the funding differential was substantial. Ask Rob Smith and Mike Sumrall.

More numbers

2007-11-06T20:21:00.000-06:00

Governor56 of 1,899 precincts - 3 percent
Haley Barbour, GOP (i) 7,259 - 62 percent
John Arthur Eaves, Dem 4,435 - 38 percent

Lieutenant Governor
56 of 1,899 precincts - 3 percent
Phil Bryant, GOP 7,309 - 63 percent
Jamie R. Franks, Dem 4,299 - 37 percent

AP declares Tate Reeves the winner

2007-11-06T20:20:00.000-06:00

Shawn O'Hara defeated against. But for cooler heads in the Democratic Party, I could be writing that sentence 31 other times tonight...had they let him qualify for all the offices he wanted to seek.

Early numbers from AP

2007-11-06T20:14:00.000-06:00

Governor33 of 1,899 precincts - 2 percent
Haley Barbour, GOP (i) 4,059 - 60 percent
John Arthur Eaves, Dem 2,701 - 40 percent

Lieutenant Governor
31 of 1,899 precincts - 2 percent
Phil Bryant, GOP 3,860 - 61 percent
Jamie R. Franks, Dem 2,493 - 39 percent

Secretary of State
31 of 1,899 precincts - 2 percent
Delbert Hosemann, GOP 3,627 - 58 percent
Robert Smith, Dem 2,613 - 42 percent

Attorney General
31 of 1,899 precincts - 2 percent
Jim Hood, Dem (i) 3,565 - 56 percent
Al Hopkins, GOP 2,777 - 44 percent

Auditor
31 of 1,899 precincts - 2 percent
Stacey Pickering, GOP 3,365 - 54 percent
Mike Sumrall, Dem 2,907 - 46 percent

Treasurer
31 of 1,899 precincts - 2 percent
Tate Reeves, GOP (i) 3,872 - 62 percent
Shawn O’Hara, Dem 2,343 - 38 percent

Agriculture Commissioner
31 of 1,899 precincts - 2 percent
Lester Spell, GOP (i) 3,332 - 52 percent
Rickey Cole, Dem 2,548 - 40 percent
Paul Riley, CST 554 - 9 percent

Insurance Commissioner
31 of 1,899 precincts - 2 percent
Mike Chaney, GOP 3,803 - 60 percent
Gary Anderson, Dem 2,507 - 40 percent

Turnout appears to be low...

2007-11-06T19:56:00.000-06:00

Credible sources looking at targeted precincts statewide — including DeSoto County and some metro Jackson precincts — are reflected low voter turnout in both Republican and Democratic precincts.

But these early numbers suggest that the targeted Republican precincts being monitored turned out in higher percentages than did the targeted Democratic precincts.

What does that mean?
It would suggest two scenarios:

A)The GOP got their targeted vote out and the Democrats didn’t; or
B)The GOP didn’t get their targeted vote out and the Dems didn’t either.

But the lack of an obvious groundswell in key Democratic counties to counter lower than expected turnout in major Republican strongholds like DeSoto County suggests that the campaign polling numbers prior to the election will probably hold up - giving Barbour and Bryant the nod but making the down ticket races perhaps more competitive.

The two guys a low GOP turnout would seem worst for is Ag Commissioner Lester Spell and Republican Insurance Commissioner nominee Mike Chaney.